The company suggests that gross IRR could increase from 13% on proprietary investments (current business) to 19% from management of investments with 80% outside partners (future business): CLNS has a strong foundation from which to pursue this compelling opportunity, but the transformation will probably take 3-5 years. 3. Multiple Expansion. Colony NorthStar will be a somewhat unique business. The merger brings increased scale, should bring improved reputation, and promises lower risks. Will investors perceive it as a REIT (13-20 FFO Multiple), a mortgage REIT (8-12 PE Multiple), an asset manager (10-18 PE Multiple), an alternative asset manager (8-15 PE Multiple), or a special company? The most optimistic outcome would be if the market awards a blue chip REIT valuation multiple to growing asset management income. The most pessimistic outcome would be if the market awards a discounted balance sheet valuation to the entire business due to complexity and unpredictability. Issues in the transformation of the business model After the June 2016 announcement, new details about the post-merger business plan have been scarce: Five “verticals” were mentioned on the CLNY 3Q16 conference call : Healthcare Investment Management Opportunistic investments will be wound down (excerpt from 3Q CC transcript): The perceived risk, complexity, and unpredictability of the Opportunistic Equity & Debt investments held back the valuations of Colony Capital and NorthStar Realty Finance (NRF), so winding down these proprietary holdings should enable the company to trade at a higher future valuation multiple. But the Opportunistic Equity & Debt investments have also been a source of high returns: – NRF’s real estate debt holdings had an average yield of 11.9% at 9/30/16 – NRF’s private equity holdings earned 17.1% on their average balance in 9ME 9/30/16 – NRF’s CMBS assets had an average yield of 11.4% at 9/30/16 – CLNY earned an FFO yield of 12.0% on CRE debt in the 12ME 6/30/16 – CLNY earned an FFO yield of 15.4% on CRE equity in the 12ME 6/30/16 Colony NorthStar’s current balance sheet is quite far from the long-term goals implied by the co-investment business plan.http://www.oklahomasentinal.com/wwwoklahomasentinalcom4934/2017/01/18/professional-tips-for-elegant-products-in-consultant/
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